Good morning! I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. After hearing all the talk about lower interest rates recently, I had to smile. Does anyone remember January 2008 when interest rates were at 5% for a couple of hours? I do. Did it do any good? Not really. There were a ton of mortgage applications right around this time. But the bottom line is that loans couldn't get done and closed. So what has changed?
Nothing really. In fact, credit has probably gotten tighter. I know we're all looking for that shot in the arm to get us moving again. And the idea is great and I hope it works. I'm just not sure we're ready to exit the downturn we're in. I expect maybe Spring or Summer 2009, at least up here. Case in point. I get an email from a borrower that he wants to refinance. The rate I got him in 2007 was the best I could do at the time given his credit score. Now their credit score is better. The problem? Their house has declined in value, probably to the point where I can't do it.
Obviously, there's a ton of interest by borrowers to refinance. And it's so easy to take an application, pull credit and get excited about the prospect of a new loan. Then, we start working on the minutiae and find that it can't be done or doesn't make sense. Obviously, I'm talking about refinancing at this point. I don't know about you but the purchase market is pretty dead up here right now.
What are you seeing in your neck of the woods? Is this helping your business? Do you expect to close more loans because of the lower rates. If so, good for you. I just think it's important to bring a little levity here. When the " make sense" loans start getting done again that will start to signal a turnaround. Right now that's not happening. Plus, we're going to probably be getting some bad news in January. If retail sales are as gloomy as they predict for the Holiday Season, expect several bankruptcies after the first of the year. In other words, we're not out of the woods yet. We will be soon. We just need another six months or so. Feel free to disagree with me; after all it's just my 2 cents! Have a great day!