Washington Mortgage Planner-straight up mortgage advice and commentary

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I almost cashed in my chips last Friday. Then I kept on going!

Hi all: I've been doing this business for over 2 1/2 years now and last Friday was the first time I actually thought about cashing my chips in. It really wasn't any better over the weekend or on Monday either. It all started last week with the rejection of an inspection by my client on a place he'd made an offer on. Then one of my other borrowers stopped returning my phone calls after we had the appraisal done, locked the loan, and just needed a couple simple documents to close.

I was ready to give it up. This is a business I love and have put my heart and soul into. There have been other challenging times within the last couple years but I have always endured. I reminded myself that things would eventually get better.

Tuesday of this week marked a turnaround. A loan that I thought wouldn't be possible now seems very doable. Plus, another refinance for a friend of mine looks like it will happen. The moral of the story is to keep going, stay focused, and do the necessary things to survive. We all know it's tough right now; I definitely have seen some great people leave the business. But I think if we endure, good times are just around the corner and possibly sooner than we might imagine. So my message to all of you is hang in there. Because your never know! Have an awesome day!

 

Paul

Paul McFadden

Good news! There are signs of life out there!

Good morning! I'm encouraged today by two things I saw and read about. First of all, I was driving to work and saw that a large builder in our area was starting to build homes again. This was after construction literally stopped in a sub-division for the last 6 months. I'm encouraged. Granted, there have been a lot of builders who have bit the dust in the past year (including one in my building) but I'm planning on keeping my eyes open for other housing starts. The second thing I read is that foreclosures nationwide (and in my county) were down for the month of September. This is also good news. Could it be that this cycle has almost run its course? Obviously, time will tell.

The bottom line is I think we're closer to a real estate recovery. We've been pretty slow now since the Summer of 2007 and we all know eventually it will pick up again. The question is when. I continue to see credit being tight until the Spring but then think that whoever sticks it out will see a nice little bump in their business. What do you think? I'm always curious as to your thoughts. Have a great day!

 

Paul

Paul McFadden

The loans are out there!

Hello all: I was recently emailed the following article that was published in our local paper. I have included it below because  it tells the true story and not necessarily the one the media would have us believe. Here are some true statistics from the greater Seattle area this year. Since the first of the year, there have been over 17,000 homes bought and sold. In September, there were hundereds of loans written for millions of dollars. Business goes on; not necessarily with the flourish of a few years ago but it's cooking nonetheless. Enjoy the article below and have a great day!

Spotlight on bright side of mortgage market

By Kenneth R. Harney

Syndicated Columnist

Credit squeeze, credit freeze, credit-system seizures: Everybody knows how severe and painful the global financial breakdown has been, with banks unwilling to lend even to other banks.

But what about mortgages and real estate? Can you still get a home loan with less than a 20 or 30 percent down payment? Or with a credit score below 720?

Absolutely. It would be a big stretch to label housing the sunny side of the market at the moment, but there's a lot more light there than in most other financial sectors. Consider these facts:

• There is no shortage of money for home mortgages, no freezing of credit to purchase or refinance a house. Why? Because the mortgage market effectively has been federalized - at least for the time being.

More than 90 percent of new loans now are being made through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance program, plus Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHA is owned by the federal government, and Fannie and Freddie are operating under federal conservatorship.

All three have unfettered access to global capital markets at rock-bottom costs because their borrowings are fully guaranteed by the Treasury.

Ginnie Mae, which is FHA's pipeline to the bond market, recorded an all-time high of $29 billion in new mortgage-backed securities issued in August.

• Loan terms and credit underwriting standards have been toughened up, but you can still put down 3 percent (3.5 percent after Jan. 1) on an FHA-insured mortgage and 5 percent on certain Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan programs with private mortgage insurance.

FHA's credit standards are generous and forgiving; the agency exists to help people with less-than-spotless credit histories. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have raised their credit-score requirements over the past year, but buyers and refinances with scores in the upper 600s can still qualify for loans having reasonable rates and fees.

• Despite the global financial system's quakes, mortgage rates not only remain low by historical standards but have actually declined.

For the week ending Oct. 8, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, average 30-year fixed rates nationally dropped to 5.99 percent, and 15-year mortgages averaged 5.71 percent. Freddie Mac said 30-year rates dropped to 5.94 percent.

• Maximum loan amounts through FHA, Fannie and Freddie in high-cost local markets on the West and East coasts, such as Seattle, continue to be $729,750 through December. In January, the high-cost maximum is projected to dip to approximately $625,000.

• Home prices - pushed by foreclosures and short sales - have rolled back to 2003 and 2004 levels or lower in many former boom markets.

As a result, buyers are coming off the sidelines, making offers and writing contracts. The pending home-sales index jumped by 7.4 percent based on purchase contracts signed in August, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The heaviest increases - pointing to higher closed sales in the coming two to three months - were in California, Florida, Nevada and the Washington, D.C., area.

Housing and mortgage leaders say consumer worries about the stock market have obscured positive developments in real estate, where pricing pain and downsizing have been facts of life for 2-½ years.

David Kittle, president and CEO of Principle Wholesale Lending and incoming chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, says, "the mortgage market has never shut down" despite the global financial crisis.

Money is "clearly available as long as you can qualify for it" with at least a modest down payment and decent credit history," Kittle says.

Matt Vernon, a national retail mortgage-sales executive for Bank of America, said, "We've got more than enough liquidity" to handle mortgage demand. "We are open for business."

Most of the bank's production is now funded through FHA, Fannie and Freddie.

On the front lines, mortgage-company owner Jeff Lipes, president of Family Choice Mortgage near Hartford, Conn., says: "I don't think consumers really know how free-flowing capital is right now in the residential mortgage market. There are no shortages, no breakdowns. People ought to be aware of that."

Bottom line: Scary as the news has been about stocks and banks, this is not the case for mortgages.

Besides shopping at large national lenders, check with local banks and credit unions that may be originating loans for their own portfolios - not for Fannie, Freddie or FHA. Many of them are healthy, have cash to lend and may be surprisingly competitive on terms and rates with the big boys.

Kenneth R. Harney: kenharney@earthlink.net

 

 

Paul McFadden

Home loans available in Washington State

Good morning! I'm going to toot my horn a little bit here. My business is based in the greater Seattle area (Renton, WA.). This is where I have chosen to do a majority of my loans. Why? Because it allows me to meet personally with all my borrowers and vice-versa. I think this is important. I believe everyone is interested in building a relationship over time. Although I have the ability to do out-of-state loans, most of the time you'll see me referring these to someone local.

If any of you are interested in setting up a reciprocal based referral program for loans let me know. That is, if you have customers looking in Washington State, I'm happy to help them with their home loan. Conversely, if I have people looking out of state, I'm happy to refer them locally. I look forward to hearing from you. Have a great day!

 

Paul

Paul McFadden

Hang in there-it's going to be a bumpy ride!

Good morning! I was just thinking about the state of our economy and the worldwide economy for that matter. Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down over 400 points and broke the 10,000 point barrier for the first time in a while. Obviously, the $700 billion governement bailout did very little to assuage the public's fears.

It appears we're in for a bumpy ride. Credit remains tight and corporations are laying off workers. Still, I think it's important that we hang in there and support each other. We may have further bad news before things get better, but eventually they will. And those of us who stick it out will be handsomely rewarded.

My prediction? Expect a slow rest of the year and possibly into the first half of next year. We're going to have to get used to a new President and it's obvious the banks need time to solve their ills. I still believe that next Spring or Summer will reward us in the real estate business. I'm hearing good news in certain parts of the country (think Los Angeles and Las Vegas) as far as home sales go. Statistically we've been down for close to 2 years now and an upward trend is just around the corner. Will it be a big move up? No, but we will welcome the uptick. For those of us left, there will be numerous opportunites as the playing field has diminished greatly.

So hang in there! Let's all encourage each other to keep going. After all, an acquaintance of mind mentioned over a year ago that "people are always buying and selling real estate. So true. Have a great and prosperous day today!

 

Paul

Paul McFadden

The Real Deal - food for thought

This is one of many excellent insights into the mortgage mess. It's interesting to me that this all started years ago. It just goes to show you that it takes a while for the chickens to come home to roost!

Via MELINDA POTCHER:

Category: News and Politics

Subject: FW: Worth reading!

 

Mortgage Crisis:  The REAL Blame By Drew Zahn© 2008 World Net Daily

Stan J. Liebowitz

While many pundits are pointing to corporate greed and a lack of government regulation as the cause for the American mortgage and financial crisis, some analysts are saying it wasn't too little government intervention that cased the mortgage meltdown, but too much, in the form of activists compelling the government to pressure Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae into unsound - though politically correct - lending practices.

"Home mortgages have been a political piñata for many decades," writes Stan J. Liebowitz, economics professor at the University of Texas atDallas, in a chapter of his forth coming book, Housing America: Building out of a Crisis. Liebowitz puts forward an explanation that he admits is "not consistent with the nasty-subprime-lender hypothesis currently considered to be the cause of the mortgage meltdown."In a nutshell, Liebowitz contends that the federal government over the last 20 years pushed the mortgage industry so hard to get minority home ownership up, that it undermined the country's financial foundation to achieve its goal."In an attempt to increase homeownership, particularly by minorities and the less affluent, an attack on underwriting standards was undertaken by virtually every branch of the government since the early 1990s," Liebowitz writes. "The decline in mortgage underwriting standards was universally praised as 'innovation' in mortgage lending by regulators, academic specialists, (government-sponsored enterprises) and housing activists.  He continues, "Although a seemingly noble goal, the tool chosen to achieve this goal was one that endangered the entire mortgage enterprise."  "As homeownership rates increased there was self-congratulation all around," Liebowitz writes. "The community of regulators, academic specialists, and housing activists all reveled in the increase in homeownership."

An article in the Los Angeles Times from the late '90s praised the sudden surge in homeownership among minorities, calling it "one of the hidden success stories of the Clinton era."  John Lott, a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland, however, claimed in a Fox News article yesterday that the success came ata great price.  According to Lott, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston produced a manual in the early '90s that warned mortgage lenders to no longer deny urban and lower-income minority applicants on such "outdated" criteria as credit history, down payment or employment income.  Furthermore, claims Lott, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged and praised lenders - like Countrywide and Bear Stearns - for adopting the slackened policies toward minority applicants. "Given these lending practices mandated by the Fed and encouraged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," writes Lott, "the resulting financial problems for financial institutions such as Countrywide and Bear Stearns are not too surprising." 

Liebowitz' contention that lenders were under pressure to loosen their standards for racial and political goals was confirmed years ago by the companies at the heart of today's crisis: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  A New York Times article from Sept. 1999 states that Fannie Mae had been under increasing pressure from the Clinton administration to expand mortgage loans among low- and moderate-income people and that the corporation loosened its lending requirements to comply.  An ominous paragraph of the article reads, "In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980s."

Liebowitz likewise predicted in a 1998 paper the risk of sacrificing sound financial policy for social activism."After the warm fuzzy glow of 'flexible underwriting standards' has worn off," Liebowitz wrote, "we may discover that they are nothing more than standards that led to bad loans. It will be ironic and unfortunate if minority applicants wind up paying a very heavy price for a misguided policy based on a badly mangled idea."

And though some have speculated that lenders in the '90s dove into sub-prime mortgages in an effort to gouge new markets, the president and chief operating officer of Freddie Mac in 1999, David Glenn, confessed his company was pushed by a federal agenda.  "The mortgage industry intends to pursue minorities with greater intensity as federal regulators turn up the heat to increase home ownership," Glenn said in his remarks at the annual convention of the Mortgage Banker Association of America.  "The federal government in the meantime has increased pressure on lenders to seek out minorities, as well as low-income groups and borrowers with poor credit histories," Glenn said.

Fannie Mae recently reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development tocommit half its business to low- and moderate-income borrowers. That means half the mortgages bought by Fannie Mae would be from those income brackets. 

 A few years later, when Greg Mankiw, chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, voiced a warning about weakened underwriting standards, Congress rebuffed him as well.

The Wall Street Journal quoted Congressman Barney Frank, D-Mass., in 2003 as criticizing Greg Mankiw "because he is worried about the tiny little matter of safety and soundness rather than 'concern about housing.'"  Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, rejected a Bush administration and Congressional Republican plan for regulating the mortgage industry in 2003, saying, "These two entities - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - are not facing any kind of financial crisis." According to aNew York Times article, Frank added, "The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing."

 

Currently listening :
Yes I'm Ready
By Barbara Mason
Release date: 1997-10-08

Paul McFadden

House passes bailout bill, stock market down. It's going to take a while!

Hey all: As many of you know, the House of Representatives passed the $700 billion financial bill designed to prop up the economy. It's ironic that the stock market proceeded to lose over 100 points on the day. It makes one wonder if the bailout hadn't passed, would the results have been worse?

I think what this shows us is that economic recovery is going to take a while. Warren Buffett was quoted as saying the bailout was needed but positive results wouldn't be felt right away. He's a wise old sage. I still expect better news next year at some point. We need to work through higher unemployment, lower factory orders and tighter credit before the economy will improve.

On another related matter, I was reading an article from the New York Times today. The article was dated September 30, 1999 and talked about how Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac wanted to open up the market to more mortgages; meaning allowing less-than-perfect borrowers (think subprime) to buy a house with little or no money down. Almost ten years later, the chickens are coming home to roost!

I wish you all success as we move forward. We're all aware there are always opportunities out there. It's just a matter of keeping our heads and chins up! Have a great day!

 

Paul

Paul McFadden

Interesting economic news

Hi all: I attended a seminar yesterday sponsored by Bernstein Capital in Seattle yesterday. The one statistic that relates to us was the one about how much mortgage debt has been written off and how much more is left.

So far a total of over $500 billion dollars has been written off by the financial institutions. There is another projected $200 billion left to go. This is good news in that we are over 80% through the carnage. After this, there is no more. It does mean we still have a ways to go but I believe next year will be a transitional year as we recover.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. As I write this, the stock market is off almost 300 points in spite of the anticipated government stimulus bill of $700 billion. That's due to continuing economic news that include increased unemployment and reduced factory orders. I'll keep you posted. You're welcome to comment! Have a great day!

Paul McFadden